The model’s projected score against the Vegas line for every game, with its targeted picks flagged. These are model output, not the bets placed on The Board.
November 10–14 Snapshot of workbook dated Nov 9, 2026
Week 11 Games
Projected score from the model; Vegas line and total beside it. A pick is targeted when the model differs from Vegas by 5+ points on the spread, 7+ on the total, or 5+ on a team total. All times Eastern. Select a team for its profile.
2026 season · Bets placed
The Board.
Every bet placed this season, graded. Performance to date in units.
Units over time
Running profit after each bet, in the order placed. One unit is a standard stake; a bet at −110 wins 0.91 units.
Where the profit comes from
By week and bet type
Record is wins–losses, with pushes shown where there are any. ROI is profit divided by units staked.
Bet ledger
All bets, newest week first. ☢️ marks a 2-unit play and * marks a Model Play, a bet chosen from the model’s picks.
Week 11 · Team totals
51+ Probability.
The chance each team scores 51 or more this week, with the fair odds that implies.
November 10–14 Snapshot of workbook dated Nov 9, 2026
Top probabilities
Projected points come from the regression on team offense, opponent defense, pace and home field; the probability comes from the curve fit to actual 51+ results. Implied odds are the fair price with no vig. Spread and total are the Vegas lines, with the spread shown from that team’s side. Select any team for the reasoning, the matchup, its schedule and its 51+ history.
How the probabilities are built
Each team’s number comes from two steps, both fit to this season’s completed games. The figures below are the model’s current values.
Step 1 · Project the pointsWhat each input adds to a team’s projected score
Step 2 · Turn points into a chanceHow often teams projected at each score actually reach 51
Worked example
Reading the columns
The three criteria
Every scheduled game gets one point for each cut-off it meets, so a game scores from 0 to 3. Ratings are on a points scale: offense is rated points scored, defense is rated points allowed.
Backtest accuracy
CalibrationPredicted vs. actual 51+ rate, by probability band
Model predictedActually happened
Criteria screen51+ rate in rated final games, by cut-offs met
How it's tested
Two separate checks, both run on this season's completed games where both teams are rated.
Probability modelFeeds the rankings and the calibration chart
Criteria screenFeeds the 0–3 score and its hit rates
Limits of this test
Rest of season · 3 of 3 criteria
Games to Watch.
Every remaining game that meets all three 51+ criteria.
The watch list
Projections use ratings as of the Nov 9 workbook and will move as more games are played, so games can enter or leave this list. Vegas lines for these weeks are not in the workbook yet. Kickoff times are shown where the schedule has them.
2026 season · Projected finish
Playoff Picture.
Where the season is projected to end: the 12-team bracket, the final strength-of-record ranking and every conference race.
Standings through Sat Nov 7 Remaining games projected from the Nov 9 workbook
Settings
Conference championship games
The field and bracket assume the model favorite wins every conference title game. You can adjust those projected results here: select either team to make it the winner, and strength of record, the field and the bracket all update. Each card shows the projected top two with the model’s projected score, spread and total.
The field
Compare two teams
See why one team is ranked ahead of another. Use the Compare buttons in the table above, or choose any two teams here.
against
Projected bracket
The first round is set by the seeds, with the model’s projected spread and total. Select a winner in each game and the next round fills in with its own spread and total, through to the championship. First-round games are at the higher seed’s stadium; later rounds are neutral.
Projected final strength of record
How many more games a team is projected to win than a Top-25-calibre team would against the same schedule, including the title games as selected. Select any team for its best wins, worst losses, every game and how its number was calculated.
Projected final conference standings
Regular season only: each team’s current record plus the projected favorite in every remaining game. Order is the projected conference finish. Select a team for its game-by-game detail.